Multilevel decision method of ship's tropical cyclone avoidance route using multisource track forecast
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摘要: 为了减小热带气旋路径预报误差对船舶避台决策带来的不利于安全的影响, 介绍了船舶绕避热带气旋技术方法的使用现状和热带气旋路径预报的现状, 分析了船舶绕避热带气旋决策时使用多源热带气旋路径预报的意义。在对气象部门使用的多源预报结果集成技术应用情况介绍的基础上, 提出了将多源信息融合技术应用到船舶绕避热带气旋方案决策中的具体方法和船舶避台多级决策应用流程。实例分析表明: 利用多源预报结果进行多级决策来确定船舶避台方案, 可以综合考虑多个来源的热带气旋路径预报和热带气旋未来各种可能的路径, 最大程度地降低可能发生的危险和损失, 保障船舶和船员安全。Abstract: In order to reduce the unsafe affection on ship's tropical cyclone (TC) avoidance caused by the errors of TC track forecasts, the present situations of techniques used in ship's TC avoidance and TC track forecast were introduced, and the purport using multisource track forecast was analyzed.In the basis of introducing the application integrating multisource prediction results from observatories, a specific method using the technique of multisource data fusion and a multilevel decision diagram for ship's avoiding TC were put forward.Study result shows that TC avoidance route decided by using multisource forecast results and multilevel decision will enable decision makers to consider all the results from different observatories and more possible TC tracks, so as to reduce possible danger and loss farthest, and ensure the safeties of ships and mariners.
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图 4 起始时刻计划航线和多家TC路径预报
Figure 4. Planning routes at 180600UTC and multisource TC track forecasts
图 5 6 h后计划航线和多家TC路径预报
Figure 5. Planning routes at 181200UTC and multisource TC track forecasts
图 6 19日0000UTC后计划航线和多家TC路径预报
Figure 6. Planning route at 190000UTC and multisource TC track forecasts
图 7 191200UTC后计划航线和多家TC路径预报
Figure 7. Planning route at 191200UTC and multisource TC track forecasts
表 1 台风路径预报误差
Table 1. Forecast errors of typhoon track
km 预报来源 24 h台风路径预报误差 48 h台风路径预报误差 平均误差 最大误差 最小误差 平均误差 最大误差 最小误差 中国 135.7 997.2 0.0 225.6 1 139.4 0.0 日本 117.3 567.9 0.0 201.1 1 268.1 11.2 美国 111.1 999.6 10.1 181.2 700.8 10.3 
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