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SUN Di-hua, LAI Yun-bo, LIAO Xiao-yong, ZHAO Min, LIU Wei-ning. Real-time prediction model of arrival time for floating transit vehicle[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2011, 11(2): 84-89. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.02.014
Citation: SUN Di-hua, LAI Yun-bo, LIAO Xiao-yong, ZHAO Min, LIU Wei-ning. Real-time prediction model of arrival time for floating transit vehicle[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2011, 11(2): 84-89. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.02.014
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Real-time prediction model of arrival time for floating transit vehicle

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2011.02.014
  • 1.

    School of Automation, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China

  • 2.

    Key Laboratory of Dependable ServiceComputing in Cyber Physical Society of Ministry of Education, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China

  • 3.

    School of Computer Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China

More Information
  • Author Bio:

    SUN Di-hua(1962-), male, professor, PhD, + 86-23-65106953, d3sun@163.com

  • Received Date: 2010-12-15
  • Publish Date: 2011-04-25
    Abstract
  • According to the real-time GPS data of floating transit vehicle, the effects of road section average speeds, bus stations and traffic lights were considered, and a novel prediction model of bus arrival time was proposed.The precision of prediction model was improved by estimating arrival time to the nearest downstream station and judging the effectiveness of GPS data on raod section.The prediction model was tested and verified by using the transit vehicle GPS data of Chongqing City.Calculation result indicates that the arrival time of floating transit vehicle to the downstream station can be real-time predicted by using the model, the prediction precision is better than the existing methods, the prediction error is less than 9% in peak periods and is about 6% in non-peak periods, and the prediction model has good adaptability to the various of traffic conditions.

     

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    • References(12)
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