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MA Zhuang-lin, SHAO Chun-fu, HU Da-wei, MA She-qiang. Temporal-spatial analysis model of traffic accident frequency on expressway[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2012, 12(2): 93-99. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2012.02.013
Citation: MA Zhuang-lin, SHAO Chun-fu, HU Da-wei, MA She-qiang. Temporal-spatial analysis model of traffic accident frequency on expressway[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2012, 12(2): 93-99. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2012.02.013
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Temporal-spatial analysis model of traffic accident frequency on expressway

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2012.02.013
  • 1.

    School of Automobile, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China

  • 2.

    MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China

  • 3.

    Department of Traffic Management Engineering, Chinese People's Public Security University, Beijing 102623, China

More Information
  • Author Bio:

    MA Zhuang-lin(1980-), male, lecturer, PhD, +86-29-82334425, mazhuanglin@126.com

  • Received Date: 2011-11-18
  • Publish Date: 2012-04-25
    Abstract
  • In order to analyze the relationships among traffic accident frequency and potential influencing factors such as time, road space structure and traffic running environment, nine independent variables were selected from the aspects of time and space, two kinds of section divided methods were adopted, which were fixed-length consistent segment and longitudinal grade consistent segment, and the hourly, weekly and monthly distribution models of traffic accident frequency were constructed.A typical accident-prone section was selected, and Poisson regression model, negative binomial regression model, zero-inflated Poisson regression model and zero-inflated negative binomial regression model were used to fit hourly, weekly and monthly distribution models respectively.The best forms of three models were determined, and the temporal-spatial analysis model of traffic accident frequency was established based on the goodness of fit test.Analysis result shows that the fitting effect of negative binomial regression model is better for traffic accident hourly and monthly distribution models based on fixed-length consistent segment from the views of AIC and BIC, and the fitting effect of Poisson regression model is better for other models.The prediction errors of traffic accident hourly, weekly and monthly distribution model based on fixed-length consistent segment are less than those of longitudinal grade consistent segment.4 tabs, 15 refs.

     

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    • References(15)
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