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LI Yan, ZHANG Wei-jiao, JIA Zhi-kai. Forecast method of annual senior overhaul amount for EMU[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2013, 13(4): 102-107. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2013.04.015
Citation: LI Yan, ZHANG Wei-jiao, JIA Zhi-kai. Forecast method of annual senior overhaul amount for EMU[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2013, 13(4): 102-107. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2013.04.015
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Forecast method of annual senior overhaul amount for EMU

doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2013.04.015

  • Institute of Computing Technology, China Academy of Railway Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

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  • Author Bio:

    LI Yan(1980-), female, assistant researcher, PhD, +86-10-51893296, yan531@263.net

  • Received Date: 2013-01-18
  • Publish Date: 2013-08-25
    Abstract
  • To forecast the senior overhaul amounts of all EMUs in arbitrary time period accurately and efficiently, a forecast method of annual senior overhaul amount for EMU was put out.The relative data of existing running rule of EMU on line was taken as initial value, the concrete dates of subsequent senior overhaul and the senior overhaul amounts during the statistical period were calculated, and the total senior overhaul amounts of all EMUs on line were obtained.For the EMUs which were not put into use, the probability calculation method of annual senior overhaul amounts for different overhaul levels were built from macro perspective, and the total overhaul amounts of all EMUs which were not put into use during the statistical period were obtained by using integral statistical method.The total senior overhaul amounts of actual overhaul plan in 2013 and predictive overhaul plan in 2015 were calculated through normalization processing, and correlative comparison and error calculation were carried out.Calculation result shows that when the standard amount of EMU is 670, the day-average mileage on line is from 1 000 km to 3 000 km, and calculation period is 180 d, the relative error of unitary data in 2015 and 2013 is-2.86%, and the relative errors of three-level and four-level overhauls are-0.23% and 9.24% respectively, the errors are within the effective range, and the proposed method is effective.

     

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